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SSD prices could drop as much as 15 percent next quarter due to continued NAND flash oversupply

Editor’s take: The oversupply situation in the NAND flash industry is only expected to become more severe as we head into 2021 and could ultimately lead to even more affordable solid-state drives. As such, some enthusiasts are no doubt wondering if they should buy that new SSD now to take advantage of holiday pricing or wait until next quarter and purchase based on TrendForce’s forecast.

Market research firm TrendForce in its latest forecast said it expects the average selling price of NAND flash to decline by 10-15 percent in the first quarter of 2021. As a result, TrendForce anticipates client SSD prices to drop by the same percentage during the next three months.

PC DRAM is sort of in the same boat as NAND flash, at least in terms of demand. The difference, however, goes back to inventory. Client SSD inventory is still high while DRAM inventory is much closer to normal levels. That isn’t likely to work itself out in the near future, either, as NAND flash manufacturers are pressing forward with 128-layer and QLC designs.

According to TrendForce, client SSDs will account for 31 percent of NAND flash bit demand in 2021 while enterprise SSDs will consume 20 percent. eMMC/UFS (embedded MultiMediaCard / Universal Flash Storage) devices and raw NAND wafers will account for 41 percent and eight percent of bit output, respectively.

Masthead credit: KenSoftTH

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